- Target audience: Master and PhD students, Postdoctoral researchers and others interested in the course topic
- Timeline: The course will run from September to December 2019 (13 sessions, week 38/Sept. 16-20 until week 49/Dec. 2-6) with one webinar per week.
- Students who take the full course will complete a practical task related to stakeholder engagement as group work and present their outcomes in the last session (week 49/Dec. 2-6).
- Two levels of participation in the course will be offered:
- Level 1: Attending the full course and completing the practical task. The participants will receive a course certificate after the course if all course sections have been successfully completed.
- Level 2: Attending only individual sessions of the course. No course certificate will be provided.
- Course registration: Participants have to register for the course in advance. The link for joining the webinars will only be distributed to those who are registered. Priority will be given to students who are taking the full course, remaining spots will be given on a first come, first served basis to those who register for individual sessions. There will be a short anonymous survey about participant information, expectations for the course/webinars, and feedback.
APECS-APPLICATE-YOPP Online Course 2019
The Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS), in collaboration with the APPLICATE (Advanced Prediction in Polar regions and beyond: modelling, observing system design and LInkages associated with a Changing Arctic climaTE) project and the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is announcing a free online course on "Advancing Predictive Capability of Northern Hemisphere Weather and Climate” to take place from September to December 2019.
About the partners: APPLICATE is one of the projects within the EU Arctic Cluster, a network of projects funded through the EU Horizon 2020 and Framework Programme 7. The scope of APPLICATE is to improve weather and climate predictions in the Arctic. Studying the influence of Arctic climate change on Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, APPLICATE fosters engagement with policy makers, industry and other stakeholder groups who benefit from improved predictive capacity in Arctic regions. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is the flagship activity of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)' s Polar Prediction Project with the aim of enabling a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, verification, user-engagement and education activities. APPLICATE is one of the key projects endorsed by the Year of Polar Prediction.
About the course: The course will be a training activity within the APPLICATE project (Work Package 7: User engagement, dissemination and training) and the Year of Polar Prediction education effort. The online course is designed for early career researchers (e.g., Master and PhD students, Postdocs) with a specific interest in Arctic weather and climate prediction and modelling. Advanced knowledge and understanding of weather systems, climate, modelling and forecasting is an advantage when registering for this course but not a prerequisite. An introduction to APPLICATE`s research focus and goals can be found in these three webinars.
This course will provide an overview of the state-of-the-art knowledge of Northern high-latitude weather and climate predictions; including aspects relevant for the Arctic climate system; and linkages between Arctic and mid-latitude/global weather. The topics will include an overview of the observing system design in the Arctic, current methods in weather and climate predictions and how predictive skill can be improved. An important aspect of the course are Arctic extreme weather phenomena and engagement of stakeholders who are using weather and climate predictions in their daily operations.
This course is supported through the APPLICATE project that received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 727862, the Year of Polar Prediction, the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS), the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, and UiT The Arctic University in Tromsø.
© Photos by Fiona Tummon and Gerlis Fugmann from the Polar Prediction School 2018
The time commitment for the students taking the full course (level 1) will be:
- 1h for webinar (compulsory for receiving a certificate),
- Additional 1-2h per week for the work on the practical task (case studies) (compulsory for receiving a certificate),
- Recommended additional reading (voluntarily).
Student engagement during the course (compulsory for receiving a course certificate):
- Biography / Research Description: A biography and description of research focus of all participants that are taking the full course will be published on the course website and used to identify common research interests for group work (submitted as part of the registration form, max. 100 words).
- Practical Task: The students will further develop existing and create new case studies (information sheets for different types of stakeholders) using weather and climate predictions within the context of APPLICATE as group work. Students will be assigned to a group at the beginning of the course. The APPLICATE project will provide a template for existing case studies that the students can work with. The results of the practical tasks will be presented in the final session of the course.
- Active participation in discussions during the webinars and in the preparation of the practical task.
- Presentation of the practical group tasks in the final session.
- Participation in final course evaluation.
- We offer a certificate of attendance for students who successfully complete all the required course parts.
- Unfortunately, we cannot offer ECTS credits. However, some universities allow internal conversion to the ECTS system. Students may contact their study administration individually. The course organizers are happy to provide information about your completed course tasks upon request.
Please note that there may be small changes to this agenda. The sessions will take place around 14 - 16 GMT.
|Block 1: Introduction|
Course introduction: Advancing Predictive Capability of Northern Hemisphere Weather and Climate
Speaker: Thomas Jung (Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Germany)
Stakeholder engagement and example of APPLICATE case studies
Speaker: Marta Terrado & Dragana Bojovic (Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain)
Boundary layer, clouds and air mass transformation
Speaker: Gunilla Svensson (Stockholm University, Sweden)
Sea ice and sea ice prediction
|Block 2 - Data and modelling|
Observing system design in the Arctic
Speaker: Taneil Uttal (NOAA, United States)
Study design/experimental setups, data assimilation
Speaker: Heather Lawrence (European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom)
Different scales of predictions
Speaker: Doug Smith (MetOffice, United Kingdom)
Speaker: Barbara Casati (Environmental and Climate Change Canada)
|Block 3 - Arctic|
Polar ocean forecasting
Speaker: Arlan Dirkson (Université du Québec à Montréal, Canada)
Arctic weather phenomena and extremes
Speaker: Thomas Sprengler (University of Bergen, Norway)
Challenges related to improving weather predictions in the Arctic
Speaker: Irina Sandu (European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom)
APPLICATE and the Year Of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Speaker: Jonathan Day (European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasts, United Kingdom)
Thomas works at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research in Germany. He has received his PhD in atmospheric physics from University of Kiel and the Institute for Marine Research (now GEOMAR). He then went on to work for 10 years in the Research Department of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the UK. Thomas is head of the Climate Dynamics section at AWI and full professor for physics of the climate system at the University of Bremen. Thomas coordinates major research projects such as APPLICATE, which is funded through the EU Horizon2020 program. Thomas is an expert in the analysis, modelling and prediction of the climate system. Currently his work is focusing on the development of a new generation Earth system models that effectively and realistically simulate critical processes, such as ocean eddies, along with their impact on climate. By doing so, Thomas and his group exploit some of the largest high performance computing systems in the world.
Dragana has 15 years of experience in working on decision support for global environmental change. She has been collaborating with scientists, policy-makers and communities from different parts of the world, supporting knowledge transfer to enhance resilience to climate and other socio-ecological changes. Since 2016, Dragana has been working as a social scientist involved in climate services coproduction at BSC’s Earth Sciences Department. She holds a PhD in Science and Management of Climate Change (Ca’Foscari University of Venice) and a MSc in Environmental Change and Management (Oxford University).
Marta has an experience of more than 10 years in agriculture, water management and ecosystem services research. She is Science Communication Specialist at BSC’s Earth Science Department, supporting activities on communication, dissemination and user engagement. Working in the co-production of climate services, Marta facilitates knowledge transfer for climate change adaptation at the science-stakeholders interface. She has a PhD in Earth Sciences (University of Barcelona) and a Master’s degree in Geographical Information Systems (Polytechnic University of Catalonia).
Gunilla’s research interests range from atmospheric boundary-layer turbulence and clouds to global scale circulation. Based at the University of Stockholm in Sweden, she develops and applies numerical models for small-scale atmospheric processes and studies the effect of these processes on atmospheric circulation patterns. She is particularly interested in the Arctic climate and climate change and is leading the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) Task Team on processes.
Taneil has been working for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) research laboratories since 1978. Her work has centered on the development and analysis of state-of-the-art observations of the atmosphere. This has included studies of clouds with aircraft and ground-based radars, lidars and radiometers and integrated suites of instruments for measuring all components of the surface energy budget. She was the lead investigator on NOAA, NSF and NASA projects during the 1997-1998 Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic (SHEBA) expedition centered on an ice-breaker frozen into the Arctic Ocean. This marked the beginning of her focus on Arctic studies. Since then she has developed an International Polar Year (IPY) consortium (International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere - www.IASOA.org) that has networked the observing capabilities and science expertise of the existing land-based atmospheric observatories that ring the Arctic Ocean. She in particular has been the U.S. partner (with Russia and Finland) in establishing the Tiksi, Russia observatory and (with Canada) in developing the Eureka and Alert, Canada observatories. She is currently preparing to deploy on the MOSAiC expedition ice-drift for the deep winter phase (Dec-Jan-Feb). Her current interests are networking atmosphere-ocean-ice-terrestrial measurements to obtain an integrated understanding of the total Arctic system. She is the leader of the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory, Physical Science Division, Polar Observations and Processes Team.
Heather received her bachelor's and master's degrees in Physics from the University of Cambridge in 2005 and her Ph.D. in Physics from the University of Bordeaux in 2010, where she worked on modelling the L-band microwave emission of land surfaces. During 2011 - 2012 Heather worked on soil moisture and vegetation optical depth retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission, at the Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la BIOsphère (CESBIO), Toulouse, and the University of Valencia. In 2013 she joined the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) to work on the assimilation of microwave atmospheric sounding data for Numerical Weather Prediction. Her interests include the calibration/validation of new satellite instruments, data assimilation for numerical weather prediction and radiative transfer modelling, including of land and ocean surfaces.
Doug leads the decadal climate prediction research and development at the Met Office Hadley Centre. Since joining the UK Met Office in 1997, Doug has developed the Met Office Decadal Climate Prediction System: DePreSys, leading the decadal prediction team since 2008. Before that, Doug worked on satellite remote sensing of sea ice and rainfall at University College London and the University of Bristol. Doug obtained a BSc in Mechanical Engineering, and a PhD in computational fluid dynamics from Imperial College London.
Barbara obtained her PhD on forecast verification methods in 2004 from the University of Reading (UK). She then consolidated her research interests at Environmental and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), first as a post-doc (2004-2007), and then in her current position of Research Scientist in verification and post-processing. She worked also on statistical analysis of extreme events with application to climate models (Ouranos, Montreal, 2007-2013). Barbara has been one of the founding members of the WMO Joint Working Group in forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR), and since 2016 she brings her strong expertise in forecast verification into the PPP Steering Group.
Arlan began working on polar climate at the University of Montana while completing his Bachelor’s degree in Applied Mathematics with a Minor in Geosciences. During that time, he worked closely with a team of glaciologists on topics related to ice sheets, which allowed him to also enjoy a summer field season in Greenland. Arlan then completed his PhD at the University of Victoria, where he carried out a body of research targeted toward improving seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions using the operational seasonal forecasting system for Environment and Climate Change Canada. Currently, he is working as a postdoctoral fellow at the Université du Québec à Montréal, and continues to work closely with government scientists at ECCC. His overall research focus is on developing user-relevant sea ice forecast information using multi-model ensembles, in order to support climate services provided by the WMO Arctic Regional Climate Centre in Montreal, Canada.
Thomas is a meteorologist focusing on the combination of theory, observations, and modelling. He has specialized on a variety of scales ranging from meso, synoptic, to large-scale flow and participated in several field campaigns addressing meso-scale atmospheric flow and atmosphere-ocean interactions. Since 2015, Thomas is the director of the NFR funded Norwegian Research School on Changing Climates in the Coupled Earth System (CHESS). His specific research interests are devoted to interaction between different space and time scales as well as the influence of diabatic processes in the atmosphere. IHe is currently leading research projects focusing on high impact weather in the Arctic, e.g., Polar lows and topographically initiated wind events with an increasing interest on atmosphere-ocean-ice interactions. In 2012 he was elected as a member of the International Commission for Dynamic Meteorology and became its elected president in 2019. He led several international workshops, often focusing on Arctic processes and atmosphere-ocean-ice interaction. He was awarded the prize for best lecturer of the academic year 2012/2013 at the Faculty for Mathematics and Natural Sciences at the University of Bergen and nominated for the IAMAS early career scientist medal in 2013. In 2013, Thomas was nominated as Norwegian delegate to the Atmospheric Working Group of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), of which he was elected chair from 2015 until 2019.
Jonny is a member of the diagnostics team at the European Center For Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). His work focusses on coupled processes and predictability in cold climate zones. He has been a steering group member of the WMO – Polar Prediction Project since 2013. Before joining ECMWF in 2017 Jonny was an AXA Post-Doctoral Research Fellow at the University of Reading. His research focussed on Arctic cyclones, sea ice prediction and polar climate processes. Before this he was a Post-Doc at the Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). He received his PhD from the University of Bristol in 2011.
The case studies focus on extreme events of Arctic weather and climate on different time scales, and their impact on a specific aspect of society or daily life in the Arctic and beyond. Severe Weather Europe has a good collection and documentation of unusual weather events in Europe. Visit the APPLICATE website for examples of case studies done by the project so far.
Renewable energy comes from natural sources such as sunlight, wind, rain, etc. that offer environmental, economic and energy-security benefits. On overview of renewable energy resources in the Arctic can be found in the Arctic Renewable Energy Atlas. However, natural sources also bring challenges, since they are strongly affected by weather and climate variability, which cause wide variations in both energy supply and demand. Forecasting this variability at different timescales is crucial for efficient energy management. For instance, a growing number of windparks is operating or planned (e.g., offshore and along the coast of Norway).
Some challenges for renewable energy production in the Arctic are:
Case study E1 - Renewable energy production in the Arctic: Periods of too low or too high wind speed that may hinder energy production to meet demands. Therefore, it is important to investigate when, where and for how long may these conditions occur?
Case study E2 - Icing on wind parks: Cold temperatures and high wind speeds than can lead to ice accumulations on the blades of wind turbines (icing). Such icing may require increased maintenance, may cause severe damage to the windmills, resulting in less reliable energy production in winter. What weather parameters are crucial for such icing, and how can they be forecasted?
In an increasingly warming Arctic, weather and climate phenomena that typically characterise southern locations, tend to advance northwards. That is the case of heatwaves, which are becoming more frequent and intense in polar regions, also favouring the occurrence of wildfires in areas where they haven’t been common in the past.
Some challenges for health in the Arctic are:
Case study H1 - Heatwaves & fires: During a heatwave in July 2018, 11 fires occurred above the Arctic Circle and caused air pollution and severe threats to local infrastructure. For large parts of northern Europe, increased risk of wildfires was predicted for summer 2018. Can Arctic heatwaves be anticipated using climate predictions? And would it be possible to predict the risk of fires associated to heatwaves, i.e., to send an early warning to civil services? How can the risk of forest fires be mitigated in the long-term future?
Case study H2 - Human health and comfort: Elevated temperature and humidity may also affect human health and comfort. Initiatives such as the Inuit Mental Health and Wellness map offers an inventory of programs that focus on health and comfort-related issues. Certain population groups are particularly susceptible and coping strategies will need to be developed in northern countries. What can be done to better forecast future heatwaves in order to minimize human discomfort and health problems?
Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of weather-related risks and hazards (e.g., storms, iceberg formation, cold spells, etc.) may change.
Some challenges for safety and the insurance sector in the Arctic are:
Case study S1 - Future risks for hazards: Can we expect an increased risk from certain weather- and/or climate-related natural disasters in the Arctic that affect everyday operations at sea, transport, tourism, search and rescue, or other activities? Which information could be provided to support adaptation and preparedness, and thus continue safely performing these activities?
Case study S2 - Heat and rockfalls: An increased risk from rockfalls in mountainous regions has been identified during exceptionally warm periods, for example on Lofoten mountains in northern Norway. Rockfalls are common in areas with mountain permafrost. During exceptionally warm periods, could these events become more common in areas without permafrost? How could this be assessed?
Because of climate change, parameters of the atmosphere and the ocean (e.g. temperature, salinity) as well as ice cover are rapidly changing in the Arctic. These changes are happening too fast for wildlife to adapt to the new habitat conditions.
Here there are some examples:
Case study B1 - Sea ice and biodiversity: The loss of sea ice, which is rapidly changing both in extent and thickness, is pushing polar bears into communities, making walruses no longer able to haul-out on sea ice, and putting caribou at greater risk of falling through thin ice as they cross between islands (just to give a few examples). How can a better prediction of sea ice extent help identify those habitats that are more at risk (e.g. of changing or disappearing)?
Case study B2 - Climate variables and marine biodiversity: Marine habitat is also impacted by changes in the temperature of the atmosphere as well as ocean temperature and salinity. How can we forecast changes in temperature and salinity (or other variables) that move beyond a range of tolerance of certain species (e.g. fish or algae), making their typical habitats unsuitable, and affecting migration and habitats shifts? (e.g. autochthonous species disappearing from one area, exotic/invasive species extending their range to the Arctic habitats?)
No application for the course is needed, but a registration for the entire course or seperate sessions is required in order to receive the certificate.
Yes. Priority will be given to students who are taking the full course, remaining spots will be given on a first come, first served basis to those who register for individual sessions.
For receiving a certificate, you need to 1) submit a short biography/description of research focus; 2) attend 10 out of the 12 webinars and engage actively in the discussion following the presentations; 3) actively participate in the practical task and its final presentation, and 4) respond to the final course evaluation form.
Unfortunately, we cannot offer ECTS credits. However, some universities allow internal conversion to the ECTS system. Students may contact their study administration individually.
Since the course runs online, we do not charge any course fees.
- Natalie Carter - University of Ottawa, Canada
- Luisa Cristini - APPLICATE / Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
- Gerlis Fugmann - Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS)/ Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany
- Paul Rosenbaum - Uppsala University, Sweden
- Fiona Tummon - Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Switzerland
- Kirstin Werner - International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction (ICO) / Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany